Covid-19 Forecast Modelling Toolkit

This toolkit has been devised for local areas to calculate a forecast of additional demand for mental health services resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic. It has been a collaboration between NHS Trusts, NHS England and Centre for Mental Health. The slide-deck and the excel spreadsheet must be used together. The original model was released on 14 September 2020 and this updated version was published in June 2021.

This model was used for our own forecast of the mental health impact of Covid-19 in England; the latest version of this was published in May 2021.

The model offers a forecast, not a prediction. We have used the best data that we have available to inform the model but the results are not a certainty. Please therefore use this model with care and inform any service response using a range of additional information. It should not be used as a sole determinant of future services.

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