Covid-19 Forecast Modelling Toolkit


This toolkit has been devised for local areas to calculate a forecast of additional demand for mental health services resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic. It has been a collaboration between NHS Trusts, NHS England and Centre for Mental Health. The slide-deck and the excel spreadsheet must be used together. The original model was released on 14 September 2020 and the updated version will be published here in May 2021.

The model offers a forecast, not a prediction. We have used the best data that we have available to inform the model but the results are not a certainty. Please therefore use this model with care and inform any service response using a range of additional information. It should not be used as a sole determinant of future services.

For further information, please contact Nick O’Shea, Chief Economist at


Last modified
11/05/2021 - 13:08

Let’s get better mental health support for all

The coronavirus pandemic is a physical health emergency on a global scale, such as we have never seen in our lifetimes. But it is also a mental health emergency.

We are taking action to help those at the frontline of this mental health crisis.

Now more than ever, your support is so valuable. Please take this journey with us - donate today.

You can help by donating as little as £1

Donate now